Howdy! Ed here.

It was only a matter of time.

As an online prediction market offering up a way to create bets on just about anything, Polymarket became a hot story in the 2024 election as users wagered more than $3.7 billion on whether Donald Trump and other candidates would win.

Yet questions percolated about whether regulators would act. Polymarket, after all, was operating in some markets without a licence, which is par for the course in crypto but not okay with gambling watchdogs. 

Now Singapore has said enough. Officials in the Southeast Asian financial hub just blocked Polymarket from soliciting wagers, Kyle Baird reports. 

When users try to access the platform, they’re greeted with a notice from the Gambling Regulatory Authority that says Polymarket is an “illegal gambling site operated by an unlicensed gambling services operator.”

The question now is whether other governments will follow Singapore’s lead. 

In the US, Polymarket drew scrutiny not long after it was founded in 2020. 

Commodity Futures Trading Commission officials were concerned that Polymarket advertised its services on a billboard in New York even though the site wasn’t licenced to operate in the US.

Two years later, the company paid a $1.4 million penalty and pledged not to allow US residents to access the platform.

Then on November 13, the FBI searched the home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan and seized his mobile phone and other devices. 

Many in the crypto community jumped to the conclusion that this was some form of “Deep State” payback for Trump’s victory. For months, the odds of a Trump win were far more favourable than traditional polling, and Liam Kelly reported how four whales alone were skewing the odds.

But authorities don’t need much impetus to go after what they may see as rogue gambling operations. For decades, licensing and watchdogging online and brick-and-mortar casinos has been routine in many nations.

Given the growth of online prediction markets,Singapore’s action may spur regulators elsewhere to take their own look at Polymarket and its ilk.

In theory, this shouldn’t be that big a deal for a company of its scale. All it would have to do to assuage scrutiny is what numerous other gambling operators do: register with the government and get a licence. 

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